The 2025 Polling wrap
Looking back at a historic year across Westminster, Welsh, and Scottish polling
2025: A Year of Polling Firsts
It’s been a tumultuous year of firsts that will be remembered in polling history:
Reform UK led 196 polls, more than any party.
For the first time, neither Labour nor the Conservatives appeared in the top two in some Westminster polls.
Both Labour and the Conservatives polled below 20% in the same poll for the first time.
Reform outpolled Labour and the Conservatives combined on three occasions.
Labour fell below 20% for the first time since the 1980s, later hitting record lows of 14%.
The Greens hit a new polling high of 18% and took fourth place in the polling trend.
Five parties consistently polled above 10%.
The year reflected the demise of the old two party system, and the rise of multi-party politics, as well as Reform and the Greens taking new places as the leading parties.
How the Polling Landscape Changed in 2025
The polling picture today looks very different than it did on 1st January 2025. Let’s look at the top parties changes over the year.
All figures in the article are based on 7 Poll Moving Averages, unless specific polls are referenced
Year to Date Changes
The Winners
The Greens had the best year, increasing 6.7% and overtaking the Lib Dems for a strong 4th place.
Reform increased 4.7% YTD, falling from a peak YTD increase of around 10% in June. They took the polling lead around early May and have held it since.
The Losers
Labour dropped 9.2%, landing third place overall in the polling.
The Conservatives dropped 4.3% YTD, with some recovery towards the end of the year. They claimed second place in the polling, perhaps more because of Labour’s losses than any Conservative gains.
The Liberal Democrats increased a modest 0.5% YTD, seemingly making little impact overall on their polling numbers, and are now fifth overall.
The Numbers
There were 265 polls covered, vs the 324 polls released in 2024 , which was after all an Election Year
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Wales: Westminster and the Senedd
Westminster (Wales)
At the Westminster level, it was a great year for Reform and an equally bad one for Labour.
YTD, Reform rose 6.2% and Labour dropped 10.8%. Plaid Cymru and the Greens also made gains, at +2.7% and +4.5% respectively.
Reform currently leads Welsh Westminster polling by 8.5%, with PC in second and Labour in third.
Senedd Polling
In the Senedd polling, Reform and Plaid Cymru were the winners of the year, with YTD changes of:
PC: +4.1%
Reform: +3.8%
Reform also lead Senedd polling by a very tight 0.5%, with PC again second and Labour third. It’s worth remembering the Senedd will be a PR system in 2026, meaning Reform and PC will have a very close fight for seats.
Scotland: Westminster and Holyrood
Westminster (Scotland)
The SNP has an extremely solid year, dropping just 1% and maintaining their lead. Reform gained 6.5%, gaining second place in polling from Labour, who fell 5.0%.
Currently, Reform sit in second place at 21.8%, 9.5% behind the SNP, with Labour in third at 16.8%.
Holyrood Polling — Constituency Level
The SNP maintained a rock solid lead here, gaining just 0.1% YTD. Labour fell to third place behind Reform, trailing by 2%. Reform was the biggest mover YTD, at +6.1%.
Holyrood Polling — Regional Level
Things were a bit more dynamic here, the SNP maintained their lead, but fell 2.3% YTD.
Reform again took second place from Labour, but it’s a tighter race, with Reform at 17.8% and Labour at 17%. Reform was again the biggest winner, gaining +5.0% in the regional polling.
Regional Polling Across England
As well as being first in Wales and second in Scotland Westminster polling, Reform lead most of the English regions, with the Conservatives often in second. London is the exception where Labour leads:
For methodology on regional polling, see https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/path-to-no10
Looking Ahead
2025 polling points to a permanent realignment on both the left and right, rather than cyclical movement. It’s possible the UK is moving to a new era of multi-party politics, just as it’s possible Labour and the Conservatives will regain their places in the top two.
Next year’s local and regional elections will certainly be the next polling test, and could drive Reform and the Greens to new heights, or give the Conservatives some much needed revitalisation. The question will be if the two party system can stage another comeback.